Business Description
"The crypto market may plunge into a real crypto winter in 2026. This opinion was shared with the readers of his microblog by a popular trader and investor in the crypto community, Bob Lucas. The author explained his forecast of the market movement in a thread on his Twitter page.Bob Lucas believes that Bitcoin movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, each of which consists of four microcycles of 4 years. Analyst theory is based on the analysis of markets, with an emphasis on the psychology of people's behavior.
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Halvings give power to form trends in the cryptocurrency market. Recall that a decrease in the rate of release of bitcoins from the network is recorded approximately once every four years. The previous halving dated May 11, 2020. The next decrease in the speed of BTC mining, if the network maintains the current pace, will occur at the end of winter - in the spring of 2024.
Before moving into the crypto winter proposed by Bob Lucas, according to the author of the theory, bitcoin will be able to update the absolute maximum. The analyst presented his vision of the possible trajectory of BTC movement on the chart, indicating the expected position of the coin on the scale.
As conceived by the author of the theory, bitcoin movement cycles should be calculated from one local maximum to a minimum.
The fourth cycle, according to Bob Lucas, is usually characterized by a protracted correction. After the peak of the fourth cycle, which may start in 2023, the cryptocurrency, according to the analyst, risks plunging into a period of protracted decline.
“In theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows. Yes, it’s hard to believe,” said Bob Lucas, adding that few believed in the fall of more than 80% of the Nasdaq index, as well as the shares of technology giants such as Amazon and Apple.
Analyst Peter Brandt, who previously correctly predicted the correction of Bitcoin in 2018, warned investors about a possible decline in BTC to new lows.
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